Former President Donald Trump is maintaining his commanding lead in early-voting states in the Republican presidential primary despite two indictments and more than a dozen challengers trying to peel off voters to their cause.
A pair of polls released over the weekend show Trump is still the heavy frontrunner in Iowa and South Carolina while most of the field is unable to get to double-digit support.
A Fox Business survey of likely Republican caucus participants found 46% back the former president, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16% and Sen. Tim Scott at 11%. The rest of the field did not surpass single-digit support, with Vivek Ramaswamy receiving 6%, former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 5%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 4%, along with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum at 3%.
Trump was also seen as the party’s best odds to deny President Joe Biden a second term, with 45% saying he had the best chance to win in 2024, followed by DeSantis at 23%, Scott at 6%, and Pence at 5%.
Despite an indictment from the Justice Department for his alleged withholding and mishandling of classified documents, Trump has remained the heavy favorite to win the Republican presidential primary. Some surveys have even found him gain support in the immediate days after the charges.
“The support is rock solid. It's cemented and it's going to be very difficult to chip away at if you're one of the other candidates,” said David Cohen, a political science professor and director of the University of Akron’s Applied Politics program. “His supporters are hardcore loyalists, and it really doesn't matter what happens to him, what he does, what he says. Even if the guy ends up going to prison, I think he will still have a great deal of that hardcore support.”
Trump’s support in Iowa has remained very consistent but it also has not grown much, with most of the changes happening between lesser-known candidates and others entering the race.
“Iowa isn't the kingmaker and what we usually say is that Iowa separates the contenders from the pretenders,” said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “But that said, sometimes if you don't do well in Iowa, it's pretty much all over for you.”
The poll in Iowa shows Scott, who has invested a lot of time and campaign resources in early-voting states like Iowa, is gaining some momentum in the race. Most surveys find non-Trump or DeSantis candidates failing to crack double-digit support.
“He's got a positive method message. It's a faith-based message that appeals to a lot of evangelicals, which are a big part of the Iowa Republican Party,” Hagle said. “There are a lot of people that are just tired of the negativity that you see.”
DeSantis has also found himself struggling to gain ground against the former president and even losing support in some polls since the launch of his presidential campaign. He has been the subject of several stories about missteps and troubles within his campaign and was targeted by the White House over the weekend for Florida’s new standards on teaching African-American history and slavery.
Early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire are known for requiring aspiring presidential candidates to spend a lot of time in the state meeting with voters in small settings to win their support. Iowa’s primary caucus system emphasizes those connections with voters as they are required to go to a precinct and stay there to support their preferred candidate until a winner is declared.
Some observers see the need for personal interactions and charisma as a damaging factor for his campaign.
“Iowa and New Hampshire are all about retail politics and sitting down with people one-on-one in diners and meeting small groups of people at local county fairs and that is not DeSantis’ strong point. He does not do well in small circles and talking to people one-on-one,” Cohen said.
DeSantis has also sprawled across the country more than some other candidates and has duties for his governorship that keep him off the campaign trail and in Florida. Candidates who are not sitting in public office have been able to focus all their efforts in Iowa and other early-voting states.
A separate Fox Business poll conducted with likely South Carolina primary voters found more signs of strength for Trump. Nearly half of those in the survey said they preferred Trump, with Haley surging to second in her home state at 14%, DeSantis at 13% and another South Carolinian in Scott with 10%. No others cleared double digits.
South Carolina has a history of picking both parties’ eventual nominees and has been a saving grace for some other struggling campaigns. Biden’s win in South Carolina during the 2020 primary is credited by many for saving his campaign which had come into the state struggling and ultimately boosting him to the White House.
The state is a challenge for the field with Trump’s existing base of support and two South Carolinians in the field. It is the only place Haley has been able to crack double-digit support and the second state for Scott.
“In a perfect world establishment Republicans would probably like to have (Scott) as their nominee. In a general election matchup, he would be a really big threat to Joe Biden because I think he would be able to peel off a lot of independent support, and even some support from the base for Biden,” Cohen said. “But I don't think he has a snowball's chance in hell getting the nomination.”
